El Niño,
week by week.
The Pacific's latest readings from NOAA: how strong this El Niño is, how it compares with the great ones, and where it is already being felt.
A 83% chance this becomes the strongest El Niño on record.
El Niño is here and NOAA expects it to continue.
- Weak+0.5
- Moderate+1.0
- Strong+1.5
- Very strong+2.0
- Historic+2.5
How this one compares.
NOAA's official index for the great El Niños since 1950, month by month from the spring each began. The dashed line is NOAA's forecast for this one, with the range of its forecasts shaded.
Strength by month (°C above normal)
- 1982-83
- 1997-98
- 2015-16
- 2023-24
- 2026-27
- NOAA forecast and range
Why headlines quote a bigger number.
Most reports quote the traditional reading: how much warmer the central Pacific is than normal, +3.3°C this week. NOAA's official index compares it with the rest of the tropical oceans instead, which have warmed too: +2.4°C.
NOAA switched to the relative index in February 2026, so each El Niño is measured against the climate it happens in. Off Peru and Ecuador the sea is warmer still: that is where the floods and the fishing losses start.
The past year, week by week
- Official (relative)
- Traditional
- Off Peru and Ecuador
What NOAA has said.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center sets the El Niño alert each month, on the second Thursday. The next update is on November 12, 2026.
- El Niño Advisory
El Niño is here and NOAA expects it to continue. Chance of a record: 83%.
- El Niño Advisory
El Niño is here and NOAA expects it to continue. Chance of a record: 75%.
- El Niño Advisory
El Niño is here and NOAA expects it to continue. Chance of a record: 69%.
- El Niño Advisory
El Niño is here and NOAA expects it to continue.
- El Niño AdvisoryChanged
El Niño is here and NOAA expects it to continue.
- El Niño WatchChanged
NOAA expects El Niño to form within the next six months.
- Final La Niña AdvisoryEl Niño WatchChanged
NOAA expects El Niño to form within the next six months.
- La Niña AdvisoryEl Niño WatchChanged
NOAA expects El Niño to form within the next six months.
- La Niña Advisory
La Niña is here and NOAA expects it to continue.
- La Niña Advisory
La Niña is here and NOAA expects it to continue.
- La Niña Advisory
La Niña is here and NOAA expects it to continue.
- La Niña Advisory
La Niña is here and NOAA expects it to continue.
Where it hits.
El Niño moves rain and heat around the world. Reefs feel it first; below are the effects a typical El Niño brings, though no two are alike.
reef regions at NOAA's highest bleaching alert today
- Northern Line IslandsAlert level 226.7 °C-weeks
- Yucatan PeninsulaAlert level 222.1 °C-weeks
- Veracruz, MexicoAlert level 218.7 °C-weeks
- Central BahamasAlert level 217.8 °C-weeks
- Panama Pacific EastAlert level 217.7 °C-weeks
- Colombia AtlanticAlert level 217.4 °C-weeks
Heat stress in degree heating weeks. Past 8, NOAA expects widespread bleaching and some coral to die. Source: NOAA Coral Reef Watch.
Peru and Ecuador
Warm coastal seas bring heavy rain and floods, and drive off the anchovy behind the world's fishmeal trade.
Southern US
A wetter, stormier winter from California to Florida, and a milder one across the northern states.
The Amazon
Drought and low rivers across northern Brazil, with more forest fires.
Southern Africa
Drought in the growing season, putting maize harvests and food supplies at risk.
India
A weaker monsoon, which hurts rice, sugar and pulses.
Indonesia
Drought, peat fires and haze across Southeast Asia, and smaller palm oil and rice harvests.
Australia
A drier east, with more heat and a higher bushfire risk.
Atlantic hurricanes
Fewer storms: stronger winds high over the Atlantic tear them apart as they form.
A hotter world on top.
El Niño releases heat from the Pacific into the air, on top of global warming. The world's daily temperature from Copernicus, against the last three years.
Sea surface, 60°S to 60°N (°C)
- 2026
- 2025
- 2024
- 2023
- 1991-2020 average
30 of the last 30 days set a record for the date.
So far in 2026: 20.93°C, ahead of 20.87°C in 2024, the warmest full year.
Air at the surface, worldwide (°C)
- 2026
- 2025
- 2024
- 2023
- 1991-2020 average
6 of the last 30 days set a record for the date.
So far in 2026: 15.31°C, ahead of 15.10°C in 2024, the warmest full year.
Prices to watch.
Crops that El Niño's droughts and floods tend to hit, in world prices from the World Bank, measured from NOAA's first El Niño alert in Mar 2026.
Cocoa
Coffee (arabica)
Sugar
Rice (Thai 5%)
Wheat (US hard red winter)
Palm oil
Monthly averages. El Niño is one of many forces on these prices, alongside harvests elsewhere, demand, currencies and policy. Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0.
Know the moment it changes.
Avos reads NOAA, the agencies and the news, and emails you when something you follow moves.
How this page is made.
Atlas, the Avos data engine, reads the agencies that measure El Niño and its effects, and rebuilds this page every few hours.
1. NOAA's numbers
The alert status, the official index, the weekly readings and the outlook come from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
2. The world around it
Global temperatures from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5), reef heat stress from NOAA Coral Reef Watch, and crop prices from the World Bank.
3. Two measures
NOAA's relative index takes out the warming of the whole tropics, so it reads lower than the traditional figure most reports quote. This page shows both.
Figures are the latest published and are often revised. Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026. This page is for information only; it is not a forecast of its own or advice.